Great to meet the Executive Chairman of Union Jack Oil (UJO) this morning for breakfast in Bath, for an informal get-together and chat. As a shareholder, I was keen to talk about some of the company’s prospects for the future and share with the contrarianinvestor.net readers.
Just to be clear and transparent, I own shares in Reabold (RBD) and UJO but am not paid by UJO or any associated companies and do not have any links with Mr Bramhill or the board of directors. I am of the opinion that West Newton is looking very promising, but not entirely without risks as is the case with any oil drilling campaign, anywhere in the world. The West Newton project (WN) been endorsed in The City by the £24 million Reabold Resouces (RBD) placement this week at just a 12% discount in this horrible market for IPO’s and placings.
Reabold (RBD) Placing
RBD’s placing of £24 million was placed at 0.9p with investors this week and the majority of the proceeds are intended to be used to meaningfully increase Reabold's interest in Rathlin Energy UK Ltd, to fund and accelerate the permitted, two well work programme, assess and process seismic and conduct testing at the West Newton project and provide the required funding for the IM-2 well. Also, exercise the existing option in Danube Petroleum Ltd.
Reabold (RBD) in essence, and subject to the general meeting on October 29th, own 75% of Rathlin Energy (UK), through a £16 million cash investment and a £7 million equity swap with existing Rathlin shareholders. The deal could fail to be passed at the EGM but this would be highly surprising!
As ever, DB was tight-lipped about anything not in the public domain, but rather usefully the RBD placing documents give out a lot of information which informs shareholders what a super prospect that West Newton is. With a lot of imminent news flow from West Newton, Wressle, Biscathorpe and Keddington and it’s exciting times for DB and the team as well as shareholders. Looks very promising!
On the issue of funding for UJO’s 4 major prospects West Newton, Biscapthorpe, Wressle and Keddington. The bulletin boards are ablaze with “speculation of imminent funding and a placing”. From the budget shown in the RBD document, funding will be required for West Newton at some point, but given the RNS news flow expected from DB and UJO, the placing is unlikely to be in the short term at the current share price (subject to general stock market conditions of course!).
The company had around £2.8 million in cash on September 20th 2019, and no debt at the moment and the company is close to that position as of October 11th.
The West Newton B well will cost around £6-7 million, assuming that Reabold / Rathlin decide to drill a horizontal rather than vertical well (with production of 1000-1500 bopd). The RBD documents say that the WN-B well is planned End Q1 2020, but it could be sooner. A drilling rig costs around £25,000 a day.
A placing will come and is necessary to do work on the 4 projects but it is unlikely to be imminent. News flow will mean that a placing can be done at a higher price than now in October. DB was, of course, unable to give me timings. I would expect a lot higher share price than 0.2p. DB was clear - Any placing will be value accretive to the company and investors.
CPR and EWT on West Newton
Analysis of the data from the West Newton A well is ongoing. Volumetrics and oil quality data for the project are being done. This takes time to get it right! The fact that RBD got their placing away in this market at a 12 per cent discount speaks volumes about the likely result. As DB said, “it’s important to get a CPR right. You can’t rush these things! Once the analytics are finished by the third party, the CPR will be released”. Once the audit by the analytics company is complete, A Competent Persons Report (CPR) will be issued to define resources and once the EWT (Extended Well Test) is complete, a reserves report will be available.
The Extended well test at West Newton will start in late November according to RBD, but it could start earlier or even be delayed once the analytics on the volumetrics are completed. WN is of carboniferous geology so oil can flow at very high rates, especially if using horizontal wells. Highly reassuring for investors!
West Newton is a 176,000 acre licence with many potential West Newton lookalike prospects, so there may be other exciting wells not just WN. All carboniferous.
Wressle Planning Inquiry
The Wressle planning inquiry is due to start on November 5th. Critically, the North Lincs council have withdrawn all evidence. The expectation is for a 3-4 day meeting maximum, as all major objections to planning have been dropped. . Is there any risk? According to DB, Egdon has done everything they can and are fully prepared and have met all statutory regulations as highlighted by the previous Planning Inspector.
The historical seismic data for the Biscathorpe prospect was unreliable in hindsight. Initial results from the well drilled in February 2019 were very disappointing as it did not intercept the main prospect. New analysis of the seismic is being completed by a French company and will allow optimal drilling and should inform the JV of the optimal drilling position..Albeit, incoming new results indicate that the well was, in fact, more interesting than originally believed, with oil being recovered from chip samples, showing the presence of a significant oil column. DB and UJO are very optimistic.
The British Geological Survey (BGS) estimated the East Midlands and surrounding area could hold around 7 billion barrels of oil and less than 10 per cent has been recovered to date. Leaving massive upside for future drills.
Expect news in the “near term”. DB believes the area could be very exciting. Watch this space!
“The RBD documents for the placing should give UJO investors all the information they need to know. The volumetric analysis is being finalised.”
Contrarian Investor’s estimate is Q1 for West Newton CPR and start of WN-B, hopefully, a horizontal, around the same time or just after.
The partners in West Newton are taking their time to get things right and the placing by RBD puts everything in place. The news from Wressle planning in early November should be positive and watch this space for Biscathorpe and Keddington.
I am certainly not selling UJO or RBD after this morning’s meeting! As DB says there are risks “don’t put your entire pension in” but things are looking good. The partners in WN, Egdon and Rathlin are strong and the board of UJO is top-notch.
As I said before, Contrarian Investor is 100 per cent independent of UJO and DB. Contrarian owns shares in both.
Timings Summary (CI estimates)
Extended Well Test November 2019
CPR Jan/Feb 2020
WN B Spud March 2020 (could be earlier or later)
Planing inquiry November 5th - November 9th 2019
New seismic assessment October - November 2019