AIM oil and gas

Contrarian Investor Portfolio Review October 16th 2019

Greetings from Shanghai Contrarians! In order to aid transparency in what I write about, here is the first Contrarian Investor Portfolio. I will only cover my larger and more speculative or interesting holdings and put down a few of the stocks I am watching.

Please note I scale in and scale out of a position. Never sell at the top and hopefully never at bottom. Use Spread bets and CFDs., increasingly the former. Don’t use automated stops on small caps because of volatility and accidental stops being triggered on “shakes”. Tend to cut a position after a 20 percent loss.

UK Oil and Gas (UKOG) Average purchase price 1.2p Curret share price 1.10-1.20p

I have followed UKOG for many years and was a large investor during the Broadford Bridge drill in 2017. It was a profitable trade then, but didn’t manage to sell at the top at 7.4p. Broadford Bridge was a real cock up because of drilling issues.

I started buying UKOG again in the last few weeks before Surrey County Council Planning and the arrival of the drilling rig at HH. At around 1p, even with 6 billion shares in issue, it does look very good.

The news from Horse Hill yesterday on the coring samples from the HH-2 well was excellent..

“Preliminary visual analysis of a total of 241.45 ft of core has clearly identified the Portland reservoir's most productive zone or "sweet spot", which will now be the target of the planned circa 1,000 m HH-2z horizontal trajectory, expected to commence next week.

Live oil was observed "bleeding" profusely from core throughout the sweet-spot, the Upper Portland reservoir's most porous, permeable and oil productive interval. Lesser degrees of oil bleed, together with oil shows and oil staining were also observed from porous sandstone intervals lying above and below the sweet-spot. The core is now at a Surrey-based laboratory, where an extensive geological and petrophysical analysis programme is now underway. Results of analyses that directly impact the field's possible increased oil in place and recoverable oil volumes will be reported in due course.”

UKOG looks very undervalued at 1.2p. See https://contrarianinvestor.net/posts/2019/9/26what-is-ukog-worth-part-2

The drilling is HH is going very well. No cementing issues or acid wash problems like at Broadford Bridge. The geology of HH is different and lessons have been learnt. The excitement begins now as the HH-2-z horizontal well is being drilled right now, with the newly identified “sweet spot” as the target. Horse Hill has planning for up to 16 tankers a day initially, is in a calm geo-political environment of Horley Surrey and the site is already producing 250 bopd from the kimmeriddge. Tankers are leaving on a regular basis to Horley.

UKOG is an exciting prospect and I am targeting 2-3p once the Yorkville Associates shares for the Tellurian aqcquisiton (to enable 86% of Horse Hill to be owned by UKOG), further good news should boost things nicely. Don’t forget the new horizontal well will be 1000 metres long and 1000-1500 bopd choked is more than possible, New wells will be drilled in Q1 2020 to allow 3500 bopd. Lessons have been learnt by Steve Sanderson and the team over the last few years and hopefully the perfect drill so far contunues into the end of 2019.

Union Jack Oil (UJO) Average purchase price 0.22p Current share price 0.20-0.21p

I managed to see David Bramhill, Exec. Chairman of Union Jack Oil last Friday and it was a very interesting chat. I have bought in recently and it was great to hear about the forthcoming plans for Wressle, West Newton and Biscathorpe over the coming months.

Link to David Bramhill meeting notes Meeting with Dave Bramhill (Exec Chairman of Union Jack Oil) October 11 2019- exciting times ahead

Just to reiterate, no short term plans for a placing but there will be medium term.

Timings Summary (CI estimates):

West Newton

Extended Well Test November 2019

CPR Jan/Feb 2020

WN B Spud March 2020 (could be earlier or later)

Wressle

Planing inquiry November 5th - November 9th 2019

Biscathorpe

New seismic assesmment October - November 2019

Metro Bank (MTRO) Average purchase price 210p Current share price 204p

Even with the Brexit banking bounce Metro Bank hasn’t benefitted, compare with Lloyds bank for example. At 204p, the bank looks very undervalued, even with all the bad news over the last few months. The bank won’t go bust after a succesful bond issue (albeit at 9.5% coupon) and it looks very cheap versus book value. It has come down from 3000p in 2018 and the last placing in May was at 500p. Vernon HIll has been forced to leave to get the MREL related bond issue away and there are rumours that he is trying to take MTRO private. Hedge funds are shorting but upside on any good news looks strong.

See full SWOT analysis on Metro Bank at https://contrarianinvestor.net/posts/2019/10/9/swot-analysis-for-metro-bank-good-punt-or-too-risky

It has been a challenging year for Metro Bank, with the lender facing intense speculation over the health of its balance sheet earlier this year due to a £900 million accounting error. However, concerns have been redcued after the bank successfully raised £375 million via a share placing in mid-May which was over subscribed. In September MTRO raised $350 million in a bond issue.

The bank is likely looking to put the first half of 2019 far behind it and instead focus on delivering costs efficiencies and continued growth in capital-light fee income.

The bank is also busily expanding its presence in the North of England in the hopes of empowering growth for SMEs in cities like Manchester, Liverpool and Birmingham. Metro Bank plans to open around 10 new branches in 2019.

Highly capitalised - after ¢350 million bonds fundraise in September and $375 million equity raise in May to meet MREL (Minimum Requirement for Own Funds and Eligible Liabilities) requirements, oversubscribed. See more on MREL, SRB, and BRRD in link: Is the Bank of England behind the Metro Bank Chaos?

  • Deposits of £13,7 billion, net outflows of £2 billion in H1 2019 caused by bad publicity (buy July has seen £700 million in net in-flows)

  • Year on year loan growth of £3 billion to £15 billion

  • Number one bank in UK for quality of service according to latest Competition and Market Authorities Survey. Watchdog BBC calls them the No.1 UK bank for customer service.

  • Customer account growth of 190,000 to over 1.8 million, though rate of growth down from 201,000 in H1 2018.

  • Net book value over £10 per share, compared with £2.10 share price

  • Full banking licence in the UK

  • Increasing number of UK branches

  • Good initiatives with Fin Tech companies to improve service and customer analytics.

The shares have lost more than 85% of their value since the beginning of January, with the Metro Bank’s share price closing at 204p on Tuesday’s session, down from the £17 levels it saw at the start of the year.

The management says 2019 is a ‘year of transition’, with the lender focused on upgrading its cost savings guidance to the upper end of its original range and rebalancing its lending mix.

Q3 earnings are key on October 23rd and watch this space for a replacement for Vernon hill.

Reabold Resoures (RBD) - Average Purchase Price 0.94p Current Shares price 0.9-0.95p

RBD succesdully rasied £24 million at 0.9p this week, only a 12.5 discount to the prevailing market price to develop the West Newton field (17% share for UJO). The fact that the company got away the placing succesfully in this difficult market for AIM oil and gas speaks volumes. Lots of news flow for West Newton, extended well test and Competent Persons report to confirm volumetrics and once flow test completed, reserves.

See https://contrarianinvestor.net/posts/2019/10/9/all-systems-go-for-west-newton-and-union-jack-oil-as-reabold-gets-24-million-placing-done?rq=reabold

Other recent trades

Woodford Patient capital investment trust - one week trade at loss (fortunate timing before yesterday’s bad news) https://contrarianinvestor.net/posts/2019/10/15/woodford-asset-mananagement-to-close-equity-income-fund

Short S&P 500 - closed, too much good earnings news and Brexit, china deal head wind. Will revisit as S&P hits all time highs of 3000.

British American Tobacco - short trade as shares fell to 2600-2700p range as most earnings in foreign currency and £ rising.

Watching

Hurricane Energy, Imperial, BAT, I3E, Petro Matad, VAST.

UKOG update October 15 2019 - coring operations complete at Horsehill and Live Oil bleeding profusely through sweet spot

UKOG rig

UKOG has announced the successful completion of an extensive conventional coring programme in its 85.635% owned Horse Hill-2 (HH-2) Portland pilot well.

Things are looking very good with this latest news, yet the shares are only up 7% percent to 1.15p. The horizontal well should produce some stunning results of 1000-1500 bopd since it is now targeting the “sweet spot”.

Things are going perfectly at Horse Hill so far, unlike the 2017 drill at Broadford Bridge. 1.15p is a stupidly low price caused by poor sentiment and burnt fingers from 2017-2018, YA share sales for Tellurian buy out to give UKOG an 85% share in HH, oil and gas AIM out of favour, risk off investment scenario caused by Brexit etc. but fundamentals at HH justify more like 2-3p min. More patience! But the HH-2z well is now only a few weeks away from flowing. Exciting times at Horse Hill. No operational problems at all so far and the oil is still flowing at 250 bopd and being delivered to Fawley Refinery to help pay for the drilling rig (around $25,000 a day cost).

The RNS

Preliminary visual analysis of a total of 241.45 ft of core has clearly identified the Portland reservoir's most productive zone or "sweet spot", which will now be the target of the planned circa 1,000 m HH-2z horizontal trajectory, expected to commence next week.

Live oil was observed "bleeding" profusely from core throughout the sweet-spot, the Upper Portland reservoir's most porous, permeable and oil productive interval. Lesser degrees of oil bleed, together with oil shows and oil staining were also observed from porous sandstone intervals lying above and below the sweet-spot.

The core is now at a Surrey-based laboratory, where an extensive geological and petrophysical analysis programme is now underway. Results of analyses that directly impact the field's possible increased oil in place and recoverable oil volumes will be reported in due course.

Having also reached its planned depth of around 2320 ft below rig floor, the well is now being prepared for electric logging, following which it will be plugged back to the "kick-off" point delineating the start of the HH-2z horizontal section. To ensure the borehole remains wholly within the sweet spot, HH-2z will be actively "geo-steered" during drilling to keep within a series of core and electric log-derived diagnostic geological markers delineating the zone's upper and lower boundaries. The successful delivery of such an optimally placed horizontal trajectory is designed to optimise flow rates and oil recoveries from the Portland reservoir.

About HH-2/2z:

HH-2/2z, the first of two new horizontal wells in the field's Portland oil pool, is designed to be retained as a future production well, capable of delivering flow rates significantly higher than the previously reported 362 barrels of oil per day from the HH-1 vertical Portland discovery well. Following a planned extensive HH-2z production flow-testing campaign, both HH-2z Portland and the HH-1 Kimmeridge well are expected to be put into long term production by the end of 2019.

Stephen Sanderson, UKOG's Chief Executive, commented: "The HH-2 coring programme has delivered its key short-term goal of defining the Portland reservoir's sweet-spot, the most porous and permeable vertical zone within the oil pool. We can now confidently proceed ahead to drill the HH-2 horizontal trajectory wholly within the most oil productive part of the Portland, the zone capable of delivering the significant flow rates we seek."

What's happening with AIM oil and gas - pretty bombed out

AIM oil and gas october 2018 to October 2019

Both AIM (Alternative Investment Market) and the Oil/Gas stocks within it have been pretty dire over the last few months. Double digit declines and investor’s shouldn’t forget that 50% of a shares value is related to what sector it is in (approx). With Brexit and China trade fears, risk is off the table. Hence AIM is sold off as well as smaller FTSE 350 in economically sensitive areas e.g. financials, oil.

I have investments in UKOG, Union Jack Oil (UJO) and Reabold Resources (RBD) in oil and gas AIM at the moment which I bought in the last few weeks on hopes of a rebound in sentiment if Brexit deal sorted etc.

Contrarian Investor generally looks at valuation and critically news flow. All three of my Oil and gas minnows have plenty of news flow.

  • UKOG - Horse Hill drilling of HH-2 well during October. All on track so far.

  • UJO - Updates on West Newton, Wressle planning (Nov 5) and Biscathorpe. No placing imminent.

  • RBD- Update on West Newton, specially Extended well test and CPR. Exciting prospects after placing.

ukog share price 2014-2019

Others on my watch list include Hurricane Energy (HUR), I3 Energy (I3E), Petro Matad (MATD) and Rockhopper (RKH). Watching but not pounced yet, HUR and I3E in particular look oversold, but dependent on well results. Rockhopper could be a good one if Sea Lion ever gets off the ground and progress in financing seems to be being made.

Many bargains out there in this bombed out sector but if a Brexit deal is done, “riskier” assets might be back on the table. So many have lost so much money on AIM that I don’t blame fear e.g. UKOG down from 10-11p (intraday following Broadford Bridge well news) in 2017 to 1.15p now (partly due to botched Broadbridge Bridge cement job), UJO halved from 0.38 to 0.2p now due to @chrisoil share sales (he’s gone into RBD) as well as sentiment, RBD, a 1.75p 52 week high, now 0.92p.

Bombed out, but there looks like some good stories out there. I’m being very contrarian and brave and buying now as I think Brexit will be sorted before October 31 (hopefully with a deal), and AIM oil and gas may be back on the table soon. News flow from UKOG’s Horse Hill and UJO/RBD West Newton will be great to see and I think it will be positive.

Always looking for investing ideas, please contact me at contact@contrarianinvestor.net


UKOG update October 11 2019 - HH-2 Coring operations. Share price does nothing despite good news on cores

ukog share price oct 11

UKOG this morning announced that it has commenced an extensive conventional coring programme in its 85.635% owned Horse Hill-2 Portland pilot well. Details below.

Surprise, surprise the share price is as dead as dodo. Down 2.3 at 1-1.1p. The shares are struggling against new YA associates and company incentive shares coming onto the market. Still, things are going really well at Horse Hill, with new positive news , “The additional 60 ft core #4 is in response to the receipt of a revised HH-1 petrophysical interpretation from Petroscale in Houston, Texas, which indicates that the field's oil water contact (OWC) may be significantly deeper than previously recognised. “

Very frustrating as UKOG now have production planning in the bag, rig on site drilling HH-2 this month, horizontal well next month (1000-1500 bopd) and yet the shares are stuck at 1p. Investors have been burnt by the Broadford Bridge fiasco in 2017, but this is getting silly.

RNS coring

The first 60 ft core, starting at a drilled depth of 2049 ft below rig floor, was successfully landed at surface this morning and is being prepared for onward shipment to a Surrey-based laboratory, where an extensive analysis programme will be undertaken.

Further to the Company's announcement of 8 October, the coring programme has been increased from three to a total of four 60 ft cores, covering the full 240 ft Upper Portland reservoir sequence. Operations to cut core #2 are in progress and the full programme is expected to be completed next week.

The additional 60 ft core #4 is in response to the receipt of a revised HH-1 petrophysical interpretation from Petroscale in Houston, Texas, which indicates that the field's oil water contact (OWC) may be significantly deeper than previously recognised. If correct, the deeper OWC would increase the field's oil in place and recoverable volumes, potentially significantly beyond those reported in the Company's July 2018 readmission document. Core #4 is purposefully designed to provide the necessary data to help confirm the possible deeper OWC.

Following the coring programme, designed primarily to acquire the key technical data necessary to correctly position the HH-2z horizontal section within the Portland's most oil-productive zone, the well will drill ahead to just over 2300 ft, be electric logged and then plugged back to the "kick-off" point, delineating the start of the horizontal section. Drilling of HH-2z's circa 1000m horizontal trajectory will follow directly afterwards.

HH-2/2z, the first of two new horizontal wells in the field's Portland oil pool, is designed to be retained as a future production well, capable of delivering flow rates significantly higher than the previously reported 362 barrels of oil per day from the HH-1 vertical Portland discovery well. Following a planned extensive HH-2z production flow-testing campaign, both HH-2z Portland and the HH-1 Kimmeridge well are expected to be put into long term production by the end of 2019.

Stephen Sanderson, UKOG's Chief Executive, commented: "The HH-2 coring programme, a key step towards delivering the correct placement of HH-2z's horizontal section within the field's most oil productive interval, now also has the welcome task of helping confirm a deeper oil water contact. If correct, the deeper contact will have a potentially significant positive impact upon oil in place and recoverable volumes, a welcome development."

UKOG update October 9 - HH-2z Portland and HH-1 Kimmeridge wells in long term production by end of 2019

Horse hill october 8th 2019 rig

UK Oil & Gas PLC (UKOG) have just announced that the planned simultaneous drilling and test production operationsat Horse Hill have been successfully implemented.

Continuous Kimmeridge oil production from Horse Hill-1has been maintained since the start of the Horse Hill-2/2z horizontal drilling campaign on 29 September 2019. Total HH-1 Kimmeridge test production now stands at over 41,800 barrels of light, sweet 40° API crude, pushing combined total aggregate Portland and Kimmeridge production to over 71,368 bbl. No discernible Kimmeridge formation water has yet been recovered to surface.

The establishment of safe sim-ops is designed to permit the continued collection of further essential reservoir performance data from the Kimmeridge oil pool and to provide significant oil sales revenues to offset the Company's operational costs. UKOG's innovative use of bespoke safety equipment to protect the HH-1 wellhead and pump during sim-ops places the Company at the forefront of safe UK onshore operational practices.

Following a planned extensive HH-2z production flow-testing campaign, both HH-2z Portland and the HH-1 Kimmeridge well are expected to be put into long term production by the end of 2019.

UKOG holds a controlling 85.635% interest in the Horse Hill oil field and surrounding highly prospective PEDL137 and PEDL246 licences, which are operated by UKOG's subsidiary company, Horse Hill Developments Ltd.

Stephen Sanderson, UKOG's Chief Executive, commented: "The establishment of safe and innovative sim-ops at Horse Hill marks another significant operational milestone for the Company in 2019. "

News and share price outlook

share price ukog october 8th 2019

Great news from UKOG this morning. All on track and HH-2z Portland and HH-1 Kimmeridge wells in long term production by end of 2019. Plenty of £££ into the account. 1.1p is ridiculous. Some were sceptical after the Broadford Bridge “cement job” disaster, but Horse Hill is progressing well and no ramping needed. Very undervalued IMHO.

Revenue per day and month key assumptions

UKOG are pumping around 250 barrels a day currently whilst the new wells are drilled during October and November.

Brent Crude = $57 a barrel

Net revenue after lift, marketing and transport = $37 a barrel ($20 assumed costs)

UKOG share of HH = 87%

250 bbl a day x 87% x $37X 30 = $241,000 a month net to UKOG! Once the Horizontal HH-2z Portland super happy days since more like 1000 bopd.

The assumptions going into my NPV 10 model seem more than valid now. See below:

UKOG update October 8th 2019 - RNS ops update Horse Hill - all looking good

All looking good at Horse Hill for UKOG (85.6%) and Alba (11% share).

Following the completion of the 12¼" diameter hole section in its Horse Hill-2 ("HH-2") Portland pilot well, 9⅝" casing has been set and cemented into position from surface to 2,019 ft below rig floor. After setting and testing blow out preventers, expected to be completed today, the well will drill a short section of 8½" diameter hole down to the coring point, where three 60 ft cores are planned through the oil-bearing Portland reservoir.

Following the coring programme, designed primarily to acquire key technical data that will ensure the 1000m HH-2z horizontal section is correctly positioned within the Portland's most oil-productive zone, the well will drill ahead to total depth, be electric logged and then plugged back to the "kick-off" point, delineating the start of HH-2z's planned 1000m horizontal trajectory. HH-2z will follow directly afterwards.

Stephen Sanderson, UKOG's Chief Executive, commented:

 "The HH-2 pilot continues on schedule and according to plan. We look forward to the imminent coring programme, the data from which will ensure the HH-2z horizontal is optimally positioned within the reservoir, a key step towards  delivering flow rates significantly in excess of the HH-1 vertical discovery well."

Reabold Resources placing document details - a good read for Union Jack Oil Shareholders

Reabold resources logo

West Newton

  • A-2 well resulted in a significant discovery in the Kirkham Abbey formation; gross oil column of c.45m and gross gas column of c.20m

  • Well logs and 28m core cut from Kirkham Abbey indicate encouraging porosity and natural fracturing within the oil zone

  • Extended Well Test ("EWT") paused to optimise evaluation of oil column. Revised EWT planned for Q4‘19

  • Oil discovery materially enhances economics; Kirkham Abbey pre-drill NPV1 of $247m ($99m - $124m net2 ) based on gas. Oil coupled with better than anticipated reservoir quality anticipated to result in value uplift. CPR 1 assumes NPV/bbl of $11.50 for Cadeby oil target

  • Revised CPR post EWT to reassess volumetrics given oil discovery and better than expected reservoir parameters

  • Two further wells permitted at West Newton B site, optimally located to define the deeper Cadeby oil play. Next well focused on

  • Cadeby reef flank: 24% CoS1 or NPV 1 $850m ($340m - $425m net 2 ), as well as intersecting the Kirkham Abbey

  • Cadeby intersected in A-2 well and oil bearing; reservoir quality (porosity), as expected, was poor. Seismic and geological model indicate significantly better reservoir quality at West Newton B location

Reabold Resources West Newton 1
Reabold West Newton 2
Reabold resources west newton 3
Reabold resources west newton 4
reabold 5.PNG

Link to September placing document Reabold Resources